Economic Recovery in the Gulf Coast Mixed; Construction and Manufacturing Drive Gains in Pascagoula and Lake Charles, but Employment in New Orleans and Biloxi-Gulfport Lag
MCLEAN, Va.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--June 16, 2006--The residual economic impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on key cities in the Gulf Coast region continued through the first quarter of 2006. The economic growth driven by construction and manufacturing in Pascagoula, Miss., and Lake Charles, La., parallels the aggressive recovery patterns that most regions encounter following a major natural disaster. By contrast, the recovery in New Orleans and Biloxi-Gulfport are expected to lag until housing and commercial construction begins and the casino industry expands.
These results are reported in a study by noted economist Dr. Loren C. Scott and sponsored by Capital One, N.A.
"Pascagoula and Lake Charles continue to lead Biloxi-Gulfport and New Orleans with their rapid economic recovery from the effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita last year," Scott said. "From an employment perspective, these areas are enjoying a solid recovery, and the construction sector is driving their momentum."
Employment trends were among 12 key economic variables tracked in Scott's study. The results showed that, generally, Pascagoula and Lake Charles have experienced similar recovery tracks. One area in which Pascagoula is outperforming its Louisiana counterpart is in the trade, transportation and utilities sectors, where the Pascagoula region is showing job gains. This region has also aggressively reduced government employment to reflect the change in the overall economy caused by Hurricane Katrina.
Total employment in the New Orleans area was down 31 percent, or 191,000 jobs, between April 2005 and April 2006. But Scott points to a silver lining for the local economy in New Orleans. "When compared to the post-Katrina employment low in the fourth quarter of 2005, total employment in the region rose by 24,600 jobs as of the end of April. The healthcare, education, construction and tourism industries account for much of the employment growth between the end of 2005 and now," Scott said.
In the Biloxi-Gulfport region, the severity of housing damage has slowed the area's recovery, with storm surges leaving only concrete slabs in many cases. Non-farm employment suffered two rounds of losses, with a 14,400 decline between August and November 2005. A drop of approximately 8,000 jobs followed between December 2005 and January 2006. This second round of layoffs is heavily concentrated in the leisure and hospitality sector. The natural resources and construction sectors represent a bright spot for the region. Employment in these sectors was up 8.9 percent between April 2005 and April 2006.
The quarterly economic study by Scott, Advancing in the Aftermath II: Tracking the Recovery from Katrina and Rita, attempts to benchmark the recovery of the hurricane-impacted regions of Louisiana and Mississippi. The full report is available at www.lorenscottassociates.com. Scott is professor emeritus of economics at Louisiana State University and president of Loren C. Scott & Associates, Inc.
About Capital One
Headquartered in McLean, Virginia, Capital One Financial Corporation (www.capitalone.com) is a financial holding company, with more than 316 locations in Texas and Louisiana. Its principal subsidiaries, Capital One Bank, Capital One, F.S.B., Capital One Auto Finance, Inc., and Capital One, N.A., offer a broad spectrum of financial products and services to consumers, small businesses and commercial clients. Capital One's subsidiaries collectively had $47.8 billion in deposits and $103.9 billion in managed loans outstanding as of March 31, 2006. Capital One, a Fortune 500 company, trades on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "COF" and is included in the S&P 500 index.
Advancing in the Aftermath II: Tracking the Recovery from Katrina and Rita Summary Results The quarterly study by Dr. Loren C. Scott and sponsored by Capital One, N.A., Advancing in the Aftermath II: Tracking the Recovery from Katrina and Rita, attempts to benchmark the recovery of the hurricane-impacted regions of Louisiana and Mississippi. The full report is available at www.lorenscottassociates.com. Scott is professor emeritus of economics at Louisiana State University and president of Loren C. Scott & Associates, Inc. Employment trends were among 12 key economic variables tracked in Scott's study (other economic indicators, including housing reconstruction and repair, healthcare and hospitals, airport traffic and casino performance). Scott's study highlights economic recovery benchmarks for the following areas affected by hurricanes Katrina and Rita: -- The residual economic impact of Hurricane Katrina on the seven parishes of the New Orleans MSA continued through the first quarter of 2006. Total employment in the New Orleans area was down 31 percent, or 191,000 jobs, between April 2005 and April 2006. But there is a silver lining for the local economy, according to Scott. When compared to New Orleans' post-Katrina employment low in the fourth quarter of 2005, total employment in the region rose by 24,600 jobs as of the end of April. The healthcare, education, construction and tourism industries account for much of the employment growth between the end of 2005 and now. Scott cited good employment news among transportation equipment manufacturers during the study period: -- Northrop Grumman Avondale Shipyard reported 5,700 jobs, or almost 90 percent of its pre-Katrina work force. -- Textron Marine and Land employed more workers at the end of the study period than it did prior to Hurricane Katrina. The company currently has 1,160 employees and has announced plans to add 300 to 400 more jobs to manufacture armored security vehicles for the military. -- Bollinger Shipyards employed its pre-Katrina level of 2,700 workers at the end of the study period. -- Lockheed Martin Aerospace's work force totaled 2,067 at the end of the study period, which is comparable to pre-Katrina employment. Construction employment surged in the first two months after Katrina, Scott reports, but since then the sector has struggled, suffering an unexpected decline of 300 jobs between March 2006 and April 2006. On the positive side, Scott cited the economic potential of large construction projects under way or scheduled to begin soon, including $963 million to build a new six-lane Interstate 10 twin span over Lake Pontchartrain between eastern New Orleans and Slidell, $660 million to widen the Huey P. Long Bridge, $314.9 million to expand the Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, $1.5 billion for debris removal and $1.2 billion by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers for flood-control projects. For the remainder of 2006, Scott estimates that billions of federal dollars and insurance money should begin to flow into the rebuilding of individual homes in the region. This influx of funds is expected to push construction employment to record levels. -- The Lake Charles, La., area's economic performance during the first quarter of 2006 parallels the aggressive recovery patterns that most regions encounter following a major natural disaster. For the Lake Charles metropolitan statistical area (MSA), which includes Calcasieu and Cameron parishes, non-farm employment increased by 1,500 jobs, or 2.1 percent, between April 2005 and April 2006. Leading the way was a 27.1 percent increase in the natural resources and construction sectors, which encompass many of the rebuilding projects under way in the region. The housing construction and repair, healthcare and hospitals, airport traffic and gaming industries also reported employment increases between April 2005 and April 2006. Professional and business services also grew because of the demand for engineers and architects in the rebuilding effort. Calcasieu Parish is the home to 25 chemical plants and three refineries, all of which employed 6,472 workers at the end of the study period. Although major refineries were shut down after Hurricane Rita, all were back in operation by December. Scott reports that construction was expected to be a major driver in the area before Hurricane Rita. Today, three liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facilities are under construction in the region at a total cost of more than $1.5 billion. Three additional LNG facilities are in the permitting stage, representing $2.4 billion in new investment. -- The Pascagoula, Miss., MSA is experiencing a recovery track similar to Lake Charles, Scott reports, showing employment gains in the sectors covering the trade, transportation, utility, natural resources, mining and construction industries. This region has aggressively reduced government employment to reflect the change in the overall economy caused by Hurricane Katrina. According to Scott, manufacturing plays an unusually dominant role in Pascagoula's economy, where it comprises 29.5 percent of the area's total employment, compared to 15.8 percent statewide in Mississippi and 7.8 percent in Louisiana. The Northrop Grumman Ingalls Shipyard employed 13,000 of the area's 16,500 manufacturing workers prior to Hurricane Katrina. After suffering more than $1 billion in damages, the shipyard restored its work force to 12,000 workers by the end of the study period. The availability of labor and housing represent the basis for future hiring at this major manufacturer. As an example, a large number of the company's workers still reside in temporary quarters at the shipyard or nearby. Construction jobs in the area stabilized at 2,800 in April 2006, an increase of 500 jobs compared to April 2005. According to Scott, the construction sector should enjoy another spike in employment as insurance proceeds become available and federal housing grants are distributed. Likewise, housing permit activity is expected to increase dramatically as federal relief flows into the region. -- In the Biloxi-Gulfport, Miss., MSA, the severity of housing damage has slowed the area's recovery, with storm surges leaving only concrete slabs in many cases. Non-farm employment suffered two rounds of losses, with a 14,400 decline between August and November 2005. A drop of approximately 8,000 jobs followed between December 2005 and January 2006. This second round of layoffs is heavily concentrated in the leisure and hospitality sector. However the natural resources and construction sectors represent a bright spot for the region. Employment in these sectors was up 8.9 percent between April 2005 and April 2006. Casinos, hotels and restaurants remain affected by Katrina. For example, only three casinos were open as of March 2006. By comparison, 12 casinos operated on the Mississippi Gulf Coast prior to Hurricane Katrina. However, a tremendous amount of casino rebuilding is under way as a result of legislative action approved in the fall of 2005 allowing shore-based rather than river boat gambling. With no restrictions on size, badly damaged casinos are rebuilding larger gaming facilities than existed prior to Hurricane Katrina. Scott expects seven to 10 casinos to open in the Biloxi-Gulfport area by the end of 2006. This new activity should drive direct employment higher, from approximately 4,000 in April 2006 to approximately 10,500 by the end of the year. One new and three expanded casinos are expected to open by the end of 2007. Hotel and restaurant construction investment and employment growth will mirror the casino expansion, according to Scott. Sales tax collections offer more good news for the area. For example, March 2006 sales tax collections in Harrison County were 29.6 percent higher than March 2005 collections. -- Hurricanes Katrina and Rita cut a swath through the heart of offshore oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, leading to massive shutdowns. The extent of the disruption caused by both hurricanes included damage to approximately 2,900 offshore producing platforms, underwater pipelines and onshore receiving units, such as refineries and natural gas processing plants. As a result, a substantial amount of offshore production, or "flow," was interrupted, or "shut in," by the industry. Shut-in rates improved to 21.4 percent for crude oil and 10.6 percent for natural gas at the beginning of May 2006, compared to shut-in rates of 95.2 percent of crude oil and 88 percent of natural gas production at the end of August 2005. -- Data on the banking sector in the Louisiana/Mississippi Gulf Coast region reveals that institutions closer to the eyes of the storms were more dramatically affected than those farther from the impact zone. Because banking sector data lags other economic indicators, results for this industry reflect data as of the end of 2005; data for first-quarter 2006 will be available in June. In the immediate aftermath of the storms, net operating income in the regional banking sector fell precipitously. Return on assets for all banks in the parishes and counties that suffered significant damage declined nearly 44 percent from the second quarter of 2005 to the fourth quarter of 2005. Loan growth for all banks in these significantly damaged areas dropped more than 50 percent between the second and fourth quarters of 2005. Going forward, Scott reports that credit quality for banks closest to areas most damaged by the storms is a concern. Restoring banks' customer base will be important, according to Scott, since the long-term franchise value of a bank is tied to the economic vitality of its market area. In past storms, banks located in a hurricane's path experienced no decline in franchise value.
CONTACT: Capital One Financial Corporation
Steven Thorpe, 504-533-2753
steven.thorpe@capitalonebank.com
SOURCE: Capital One Financial Corporation