|FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION FANNIE MAE filed this Form 10-Q on 08/05/2011|
We expect the pace of our loan acquisitions for the remainder of 2011 and for 2012 will be lower than in 2010, primarily because we expect fewer refinancings as a result of the high number of mortgages that have already refinanced to low rates in recent years and the anticipated rise in mortgage rates. Our loan acquisitions also could be negatively affected by the decrease in our maximum loan limit in the fourth quarter of 2011. In addition, if FHA continues to be the lower-cost option for some consumers, and in some cases the only option, for loans with higher LTV ratios, our market share could be adversely impacted. As our acquisitions decline, our future revenues will be negatively impacted.
We estimate that total originations in the U.S. single-family mortgage market in 2011 will decrease from 2010 levels by approximately 30%, from an estimated $1.5 trillion to an estimated $1.1 trillion, and that the amount of originations in the U.S. single-family mortgage market that are refinancings will decline from approximately $1.0 trillion to approximately $573 billion. Refinancings comprised approximately 77% of our single-family business volume in the first half of 2011, compared with 78% for all of 2010.
Home Price Declines. We expect that home prices on a national basis will decline further, with greater declines in some geographic areas than others, before stabilizing in 2012. We currently expect that the peak-to-trough home price decline on a national basis will range between 23% and 29%. These estimates are based on our home price index, which is calculated differently from the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index and therefore results in different percentages for comparable declines. These estimates also contain significant inherent uncertainty in the current market environment regarding a variety of critical assumptions we make when formulating these estimates, including the effect of actions the federal government has taken and may take with respect to housing finance reform; the management of the Federal Reserves MBS holdings; and the impact of those actions on home prices, unemployment and the general economic and interest rate environment. Because of these uncertainties, the actual home price decline we experience may differ significantly from these estimates. We also expect significant regional variation in home price declines and stabilization.
Our 23% to 29% peak-to-trough home price decline estimate corresponds to an approximate 32% to 40% peak-to-trough decline using the S&P/Case-Shiller index method. Our estimates differ from the S&P/Case-Shiller index in two principal ways: (1) our estimates weight expectations by number of properties, whereas the S&P/Case-Shiller index weights expectations based on property value, causing home price declines on higher priced homes to have a greater effect on the overall result; and (2) our estimates attempt to exclude sales of foreclosed homes because we believe that differing maintenance practices and the forced nature of the sales make foreclosed home prices less representative of market values, whereas the S&P/Case-Shiller index includes foreclosed homes sales. We calculate the S&P/Case-Shiller comparison numbers by modifying our internal home price estimates to account for weighting based on property value and the impact of foreclosed property sales. In addition to these differences, our estimates are based on our own internally available data combined with publicly available data, and are therefore based on data collected nationwide, whereas the S&P/Case-Shiller index is based on publicly available data, which may be limited in certain geographic areas of the country. Our comparative calculations to the S&P/Case-Shiller index provided above are not modified to account for this data pool difference. We are working on enhancing our home price estimates to identify and exclude a greater portion of foreclosed home sales. When we begin reporting these enhanced home price estimates, we expect that some period to period comparisons of home prices may differ from those determined using our current estimates.
Credit-Related Expenses and Credit Losses. We expect that our credit-related expenses and our credit losses will be higher in 2011 than in 2010. We describe our credit loss outlook above under Our Strong New Book of Business and Expected Losses on our Legacy Book of BusinessExpected Losses on Our Legacy Book of Business.
Uncertainty Regarding our Long-Term Financial Sustainability and Future Status. There is significant uncertainty in the current market environment, and any changes in the trends in macroeconomic factors that we currently anticipate, such as home prices and unemployment, may cause our future credit-related expenses and credit losses to vary significantly from our current expectations. Although Treasurys funds under the senior preferred stock purchase agreement permit us to remain solvent and avoid receivership, the resulting