|FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION FANNIE MAE filed this Form 10-Q on 08/05/2011|
During the second quarter of 2011, national multifamily market fundamentals, which include factors such as effective rents and vacancy rates, continued to improve. Based on preliminary third-party data, we estimate that the national multifamily vacancy rate fell to 6.8% in the second quarter of 2011, after having fallen to 7.0% in the first quarter of 2011. In addition, we estimate that asking rents increased in the second quarter of 2011 by nearly 50 basis points on a national basis. As indicated by data from Axiometrics, Inc., multifamily concession rates, the rental discount rate as a percentage of asking rents, declined during the second quarter to -3.5% as of June 2011. The increase in rental demand was also reflected in an estimated increase of 33,000 units in the net number of occupied rental units during the second quarter of 2011, according to preliminary data from REIS, Inc. Although national multifamily market fundamentals continued to improve, certain local markets and properties continued to underperform compared to the rest of the country due to localized underlying economic conditions.
While there have been no changes in our credit ratings from December 31, 2010 to August 2, 2011, on July 15, 2011, Standard & Poors (S&P) placed our long-term and short-term debt ratings on CreditWatch with negative implications, following a similar action on the debt ratings of the U.S. government. A rating being placed on CreditWatch indicates a substantial likelihood of a ratings action by S&P within the next 90 days or is a response to events presenting significant uncertainty to the creditworthiness of an issuer. On July 14, 2011, S&P stated that it may lower the long-term debt rating of the U.S. in the next three months if it concludes that Congress and the Administration have not achieved a credible solution to the rising U.S. government debt burden and are not likely to achieve one in the foreseeable future.
On July 13, 2011, Moodys placed both the U.S. governments rating and our long-term debt ratings on review for possible downgrade. Following the raising of the U.S. governments statutory debt limit on August 2, 2011, Moodys confirmed both the U.S. governments rating and our long-term debt ratings, and removed the designation that these ratings were under review for possible downgrade. However, Moodys revised the rating outlook for both the U.S. governments rating and our long-term debt ratings to negative. In assigning the negative outlook to the U.S. governments rating, Moodys indicated there would be a risk of a downgrade if (1) there is a weakening in fiscal discipline in the coming year; (2) further fiscal consolidation measures are not adopted in 2013; (3) the economic outlook deteriorates significantly; or (4) there is an appreciable rise in the U.S. governments funding costs over and above what is currently expected.
S&P, Moodys and Fitch Ratings (Fitch) have all indicated that they would likely lower their ratings on the debt of Fannie Mae and certain other government-related entities if they were to lower their ratings on the U.S. government.
We currently cannot predict whether one or more of these ratings agencies will downgrade our debt ratings in the future, or how long our ratings will remain subject to review for a possible downgrade by S&P.
Our credit ratings and ratings outlook are included in Liquidity and Capital ManagementLiquidity ManagementCredit Ratings. See Risk Factors for a discussion of the risks to our business relating to a decrease in our credit ratings.
Overall Market Conditions. We expect weakness in the housing and mortgage markets to continue in the second half of 2011. The high level of delinquent mortgage loans ultimately will result in the foreclosure of troubled loans, which is likely to add to the excess housing inventory. Home sales are unlikely to rise before the unemployment rate improves further.
We expect that single-family default and severity rates, as well as the level of single-family foreclosures, will remain high in 2011. Despite signs of multifamily sector improvement at the national level, we expect multifamily charge-offs in 2011 to remain commensurate with 2010 levels as certain local markets and properties continue to exhibit weak fundamentals. Conditions may worsen if the unemployment rate increases on either a national or regional basis.