|FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION FANNIE MAE filed this Form 10-Q on 08/05/2011|
Table 2: Expected Lifetime Profitability of Single-Family Loans Acquired in 1991 through the First Half of 2011
As Table 2 shows, the years in which we acquired single-family loans that we expect will be unprofitable are 2004 through 2008. The vast majority of our realized credit losses since the beginning of 2009 were attributable to loans we acquired in 2005 through 2008. Although the 2004 vintage has been profitable to date, we currently believe that this vintage will not be profitable over its lifetime. While we previously believed the 2004 vintage would perform close to break-even, our expectation for long-term home price growth has worsened, which has changed our expectation of future borrower behavior regarding these loans. We expect the 2005 through 2008 vintages to be significantly more unprofitable than the 2004 vintage. The loans we acquired in 2004 were originated under more conservative acquisition policies than loans we acquired from 2005 through 2008; however, because our 2004 acquisitions were made during a time when home prices were rapidly increasing, their performance is expected to suffer from the significant decline in home prices since 2006. The ultimate long-term performance and profitability of the 2004 vintage will depend on many factors, including changes in home prices, other economic conditions and borrower behavior.
Loans we have acquired since the beginning of 2009 comprised 47% of our single-family guaranty book of business as of June 30, 2011. Our 2005 to 2008 acquisitions are becoming a smaller percentage of our single-