|FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION FANNIE MAE filed this Form 10-Q on 08/05/2011|
interest rates, unemployment, other macroeconomic variables, direct and indirect consequences resulting from failures by servicers to follow proper procedures in the administration of foreclosure cases, government policy, changes in generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP), credit availability, social behaviors, the volume of loans we modify, the effectiveness of our loss mitigation strategies, management of our real-estate owned (REO) inventory and pursuit of contractual remedies, changes in the fair value of our assets and liabilities, impairments of our assets, and many other factors, including those discussed in Risk Factors, Forward-Looking Statements and elsewhere in this report and in Risk Factors in our 2010 Form 10-K. For example, if the economy were to enter a deep recession, we would expect actual outcomes to differ substantially from our current expectations.
Building a Strong New Single-Family Book of Business
Expected Profitability of Our Single-Family Acquisitions
Our new single-family book of business has a strong overall credit profile and is performing well. While it is too early to know how loans in our new single-family book of business will ultimately perform, given their strong credit risk profile, low levels of payment delinquencies shortly after acquisition, and low serious delinquency rates, we expect that, over their lifetime, these loans will be profitable, by which we mean they will generate more fee income than credit losses and administrative costs. Table 2 provides information about whether we expect loans we acquired in 1991 through the first half of 2011 to be profitable, and the percentage of our single-family guaranty book of business represented by these loans as of June 30, 2011. The expectations reflected in Table 2 are based on the credit risk profile of the loans we have acquired, which we discuss in more detail in Table 4: Credit Profile of Single-Family Conventional Loans Acquired and in Table 35: Risk Characteristics of Single-Family Conventional Business Volume and Guaranty Book of Business. These expectations are also based on numerous other assumptions, including our expectations regarding home price declines set forth in Outlook and other macroeconomic factors. As shown in Table 2, we expect loans we have acquired in 2009, 2010 and the first half of 2011 to be profitable over their lifetime. If future macroeconomic conditions turn out to be significantly more adverse than our expectations, these loans could become unprofitable. For example, we believe that these loans would become unprofitable if home prices declined more than 10% from their June 2011 levels over the next five years based on our home price index.