|FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION FANNIE MAE filed this Form 10-Q on 08/05/2011|
credit losses from our existing single-family guaranty book of business from an immediate 5% decline in single-family home prices for the entire United States. Although other provisions of the September 2005 agreement were suspended in March 2009 by FHFA until further notice, this disclosure requirement was not suspended. For purposes of this calculation, we assume that, after the initial 5% shock, home price growth rates return to the average of the possible growth rate paths used in our internal credit pricing models. The sensitivity results represent the difference between future expected credit losses under our base case scenario, which is derived from our internal home price path forecast, and a scenario that assumes an instantaneous nationwide 5% decline in home prices.
Table 15 compares the credit loss sensitivities for the periods indicated for first lien single-family whole loans we own or that back Fannie Mae MBS, before and after consideration of projected credit risk sharing proceeds, such as private mortgage insurance claims and other credit enhancements.
Table 15: Single-Family Credit Loss Sensitivity(1)
Because these sensitivities represent hypothetical scenarios, they should be used with caution. Our regulatory stress test scenario is limited in that it assumes an instantaneous uniform 5% nationwide decline in home prices, which is not representative of the historical pattern of changes in home prices. Changes in home prices generally vary on a regional, as well as a local, basis. In addition, these stress test scenarios are calculated independently without considering changes in other interrelated assumptions, such as unemployment rates or other economic factors, which are likely to have a significant impact on our future expected credit losses.
Financial Impact of the Making Home Affordable Program on Fannie Mae
Home Affordable Refinance Program
Because we already own or guarantee the original mortgages that we refinance under HARP, our expenses under that program consist mostly of limited administrative costs.
Home Affordable Modification Program
We incurred impairments related to loans that had entered a trial modification under the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) of $2.6 billion during the second quarter of 2011 compared with $2.2 billion during the second quarter of 2010. We incurred impairments related to loans that had entered a trial modification under HAMP of $5.2 billion during the first half of 2011, compared with $9.8 billion during the first half of 2010. These include impairments on loans that entered into a trial modification under the program but that have not yet received, or that have been determined to be ineligible for, a permanent modification