|FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION FANNIE MAE filed this Form 10-Q on 05/06/2011|
Our 22% to 29% peak-to-trough home price decline estimate corresponds to an approximate 32% to 40% peak-to-trough decline using the S&P/Case-Shiller index method. Our estimates differ from the S&P/Case-Shiller index in two principal ways: (1) our estimates weight expectations by number of properties, whereas the S&P/Case-Shiller index weights expectations based on property value, causing home price declines on higher priced homes to have a greater effect on the overall result; and (2) our estimates attempt to exclude sales of foreclosed homes because we believe that differing maintenance practices and the forced nature of the sales make foreclosed home prices less representative of market values, whereas the S&P/Case-Shiller index includes foreclosed homes sales. The S&P/Case-Shiller comparison numbers are calculated using our models and assumptions, but modified to account for weighting based on property value and the impact of foreclosed property sales. In addition to these differences, our estimates are based on our own internally available data combined with publicly available data, and are therefore based on data collected nationwide, whereas the S&P/Case-Shiller index is based on publicly available data, which may be limited in certain geographic areas of the country. Our comparative calculations to the S&P/Case-Shiller index provided above are not modified to account for this data pool difference. We are working on enhancing our home price estimates to identify and exclude a greater portion of foreclosed home sales. When we begin reporting these enhanced home price estimates, we expect that some period to period comparisons of home prices may differ from those determined using our current estimates.
Credit-Related Expenses and Credit Losses. We expect that our credit-related expenses and our credit losses will be higher in 2011 than in 2010. We describe our credit loss outlook above under Providing Liquidity, Our Strong New Book of Business and Expected Losses on Single-Family Loans We Acquired before 2009Expected Losses on Our Legacy Book of Business.
Uncertainty Regarding our Long-Term Financial Sustainability and Future Status. There is significant uncertainty in the current market environment, and any changes in the trends in macroeconomic factors that we currently anticipate, such as home prices and unemployment, may cause our future credit-related expenses and credit losses to vary significantly from our current expectations. Although Treasurys funds under the senior preferred stock purchase agreement permit us to remain solvent and avoid receivership, the resulting dividend payments are substantial. We do not expect to earn profits in excess of our annual dividend obligation to Treasury for the indefinite future. As a result of these factors, there is significant uncertainty about our long-term financial sustainability.
In addition, there is significant uncertainty regarding the future of our company, including how long we will continue to be in existence, the extent of our role in the market, what form we will have, and what ownership interest, if any, our current common and preferred stockholders will hold in us after the conservatorship is terminated. We expect this uncertainty to continue. On February 11, 2011 Treasury and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) released a report to Congress on reforming Americas housing finance market. The report states that the Administration will work with FHFA to determine the best way to responsibly wind down both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The report emphasizes the importance of providing the necessary financial support to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac during the transition period. We cannot predict the prospects for the enactment, timing or content of legislative proposals regarding long-term reform of the GSEs. Please see Legislation and GSE Reform in this report and in our 2010 Form 10-K for a discussion of recent legislative reform of the financial services industry, and proposals for GSE reform, that could affect our business and Risk Factors for a discussion of the risks to our business relating to the uncertain future of our company.
LEGISLATIVE AND REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS
As required by the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (the Dodd-Frank Act), on February 11, 2011, Treasury and HUD released their report to Congress on ending the conservatorships of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and reforming the housing finance market. The report provides that the Administration will work with FHFA to determine the best way to responsibly reduce Fannie Maes and Freddie Macs role in the market and ultimately wind down both institutions.