|FEDERAL NATIONAL MORTGAGE ASSOCIATION FANNIE MAE filed this Form 10-Q on 05/07/2015|
net interest income in the first quarter of 2015 was derived from guaranty fees on loans underlying our Fannie Mae MBS. We expect that guaranty fees will continue to account for an increasing portion of our net interest income.
We expect continued decreases in the size of our retained mortgage portfolio, which will continue to negatively impact our net interest income and net revenues; however, we also expect increases in our guaranty fee revenues will partially offset the negative impact of the decline in our retained mortgage portfolio. We expect our guaranty fee revenues to increase over the next several years, as loans with lower guaranty fees liquidate from our book of business and are replaced with new loans with higher guaranty fees. The extent to which the positive impact of increased guaranty fee revenues will offset the negative impact of the decline in the size of our retained mortgage portfolio will depend on many factors, including: changes to guaranty fee pricing we may make in the future and their impact on our competitive environment and guaranty fee revenues; the size, composition and quality of our guaranty book of business; the life of the loans in our guaranty book of business; the size, composition and quality of our retained mortgage portfolio, including the pace at which we are required by our conservator to reduce the size of our portfolio and the types of assets we are required to sell; economic and housing market conditions, including changes in interest rates; our market share; and legislative and regulatory changes.
Dividend Obligations to Treasury. We expect to retain only a limited amount of any future net worth because we are required by the dividend provisions of the senior preferred stock and quarterly directives from our conservator to pay Treasury each quarter the amount, if any, by which our net worth as of the end of the immediately preceding fiscal quarter exceeds an applicable capital reserve amount. This capital reserve amount is $1.8 billion for each quarter of 2015 and continues to decrease by $600 million annually until it reaches zero in 2018.
As described in “Legal Proceedings” and “Note 16, Commitments and Contingencies,” several lawsuits have been filed by preferred and common stockholders of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac against the United States, Treasury and/or FHFA challenging actions taken by the defendants relating to the senior preferred stock purchase agreements and the conservatorships of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, including challenges to the net worth sweep dividend provisions of the senior preferred stock. We cannot predict the course or the outcome of these lawsuits, or the actions the U.S. government (including Treasury or FHFA) may take in response to any ruling or finding in any of these lawsuits.
Overall Market Conditions. We expect that single-family mortgage loan serious delinquency and severity rates will continue their downward trend, but at a slower pace than in recent years. We expect that single-family serious delinquency and severity rates will remain high compared with pre-housing crisis levels because it will take some time for the remaining delinquent loans with high mark-to-market LTV ratios originated prior to 2009 to work their way through the foreclosure process. Despite steady demand and stable fundamentals at the national level, the multifamily sector may continue to exhibit below average fundamentals in certain local markets and with certain properties.
We forecast that total originations in the U.S. single-family mortgage market in 2015 will increase from 2014 levels by approximately 14%, from an estimated $1.2 trillion in 2014 to $1.4 trillion in 2015, and that the amount of originations in the U.S. single-family mortgage market that are refinancings will increase from an estimated $507 billion in 2014 to $609 billion in 2015.
Home Prices. Based on our home price index, we estimate that home prices on a national basis increased by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2015. We expect the rate of home price appreciation in 2015 to be similar to the rate in 2014. Future home price changes may be very different from our expectations as a result of significant inherent uncertainty in the current market environment, including uncertainty about the effect of recent and future changes in mortgage rates; actions the federal government has taken and may take with respect to fiscal policies, mortgage finance programs and policies, and housing finance reform; the Federal Reserve’s purchases and sales of mortgage-backed securities; the impact of those actions on and changes generally in unemployment and the general economic and interest rate environment; and the impact on the U.S. economy of global economic and political conditions. We also expect significant regional variation in the timing and rate of home price growth.
Credit Losses. Our credit losses, which include our charge-offs, net of recoveries, reflect our realization of losses on our loans. For the vast majority of our single-family loans, we charge off a loan at the time of foreclosure or other liquidation event (such as when we accept a short sale or deed-in-lieu of foreclosure). However, under our approach to adopting on January 1, 2015 the charge-off provisions of FHFA’s Advisory Bulletin AB 2012-02, “Framework for Adversely Classifying Loans, Other Real Estate Owned, and Other Assets and Listing Assets for Special Mention” (the “Advisory Bulletin”), we began to charge off a portion of a relatively small subset of delinquent loans (as well as preforeclosure property taxes and insurance receivable that pertain to the loans) that are deemed uncollectible prior to foreclosure. The charge-off portion is classified as a “loss” pursuant to the Advisory Bulletin. Our credit losses in the first quarter of 2015 were impacted by implementation of these provisions, as well as by our implementation, effective January 1, 2015, of a change in our accounting policy for the treatment of interest previously accrued, but not collected, at the date that loans are placed on